Back in 2024, I wrote this article on Russia…
I was largely right…
But one factor I didn’t account for happening has likely slightly extended this timeline…
But we’ll get onto that.
Compare the original GDP chart in the first article to this one.
Russia has experience a big collapse in GDP since then from 2.4% to 0.8% now.
No surprises there.
But a bigger issue is their debt load.
Now yes, their 10y is trading at the same price as back in 2024, but the stickiness has changed.
I applied a 200dma to the chart to show said stickiness.
You can see that back in 2024, it was a bit of spike then a sell off…
But since then, the Russian bond market has experienced higher and higher costs, with no real show of it letting up.
That’s the power of the moving average which is why it’s our favourite indicator.
It shows you the truth.
Now more importantly is the gas and oil export crisis they’re experiencing.
See the chart below.
Russia is, according to 2025 figures, expected to have a MASSIVE decline in gas exports.
And this is worsened by the fact the price of said gas and oil is super low.
And their stock market has done, well, nothing, while other stock markets have experienced strong growth through 2025.
Something that might help Russia, however, is the fact the dollar has weakened versus the ruble…
But…
As I mentioned at the start, the most interesting part about this whole thing is Russia now has the highest FX reserves ever (although half are sanctioned).
Back in 2024, gold wasn’t doing THAT much.
I mean, in comparison to today anyway.
But the rally in price has massively bolstered their FX reserves, and Russia is allied with Indian and China who are both big fans of gold.
So they do actually have some liquidity.
It’s definitely not sufficient to keep them alive for ages, but I’d argue it extends the timeline.
There have been a few recent reports of the Russian economy being in trouble, and the growth numbers would reflect this.
How long can they keep going? I don’t know.
But the gold price rally has effectively kept the Russia Ukraine war going…